According to the latest market report provided by BRR, the Boise Regional Realtors, there is a clear downward trend in home prices in Canyon County and Ada County, indicating that we are not out of the woods yet. The report suggests that buyers need to be patient as we may still see a decrease in home prices in 2023. Real estate agents in the Treasure Valley have been optimistic lately, claiming that the bottom of the housing market has been reached and that things are starting to turn up. But what does the data tell us?
While the Mortgage Bankers Association has reported that mortgage applications have increased by 4% from the previous week, we are still down 37% from the same time last year. Furthermore, Finch has stated that Idaho is still overpriced by over 20%, which means that we may still see a 20% decrease in home prices in 2023, according to the newest market report.
Looking at the data, we see that the median sales price in Canyon County dropped to the lowest it has been since April 2021. Does this mean that everyone who bought a home between April 2020 and now is negative in equity? It’s worth noting that the median sales price in Canyon County as a whole is now at $395,000, which is a 6.4% decrease from a year ago.
We keep hearing agents say that buyers are back and that the market is turning around, but we have to remember that last year there were about 20,000 homes sold and the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) still had a $115,000 decrease from the peak of the market from last year to now. Yes, homes are still selling, but we still think we have declines coming.
Looking at pending sales, we see that they are currently sitting at 724, which is a 30% decrease from the same time last year. This represents a 3% decrease in home buyer demand, and our inventory is up 108%. It’s worth noting that it’s not an inventory issue, but rather a buyer demand issue.
Moving on to existing home sales, we see that the median sales price is currently at $339,000, which is a 13% decrease from a year ago. In April 2021, the median sales price for resale homes was $371,000, which is higher than what we are seeing now. Year over year, existing home sales are down 41%.
In the case of new construction, the median home sales price is currently at $415,000, which is 1.2% lower than it was in April 2021. In January 2023, it’s worth noting that new construction is down 10% year over year. Pending home sales for new construction are down 32%, and inventory is up 62%.
Moving on to Ada County, the median home sales price for single-family homes in January 2023 is $487,000. In May 2022, the median home sales price was $602,000. That’s a $115,000 price drop. However, in May of 2021, the median sales price was $518,000, which means that we are currently below May 2021 numbers. Year over year, Ada County single-family home prices are down 9%.
Looking at new construction in Ada County, the median sales price for January 2023 is $495,000, which is 8% lower than it was a year ago. Pending home sales for new construction are down 32%, and inventory is up 62%.
In conclusion, while it’s true that homes are still selling, the data suggests that we are not out of the woods yet.